An exploration into how susceptibility distribution misspecifications impact epidemic forecasting

Abstract

Heterogeneous susceptibility models for epidemic dynamics preferentially assume that individual susceptibility follows a gamma distribution, which permits analytical reduction to a low-dimensional system. However, the true empirical distributional form in any given population is unknown. Here we investigate the consequences of misspecifying the susceptibility distribution by comparing gamma and lognormal specifications in a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) framework. When both distributions are matched on mean and coefficient of variation ($ν$), we find that their epidemic trajectories diverge once heterogeneity is moderate or high ($ν\gtrsim 1$), with the lognormal producing a later, larger peak and a greater final size. We then assess the impact of distributional misspecification on statistical inference. Using synthetic datasets, we fit correctly specified and misspecified models by maximum likelihood. In a default scenario, where inference is based on simulated data for a single epidemic, both models can reproduce the data by compensating through correlated shifts in heterogeneity and intervention parameters. When inference is based on two simulated epidemics, however, this compensation may be reduced by known constraints of how parameters are related across epidemics. In these cases, the correctly specified model recovers all parameters accurately, while the misspecified model tends to give biased estimates. These inference biases propagate into forecasts, but predictions remain relatively accurate when compared to homogeneous models which more than double peak incidences in scenarios where $ν\approx 1$, for instance. We conclude that deviations resulting from the susceptibility distribution misspecifications assessed here are minor and encourage the adoption of heterogeneous models in future epidemic forecasting.