Connectivity of Districting Metagraphs

Abstract

In this article, we prove irreducibility results for a family of Markov chains arising in the study of redistricting and detecting gerrymandering. These chains use ReCom moves as their transition mechanism and are commonly employed in Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to generate ensembles of districting plans. Such ensembles are frequently used for outlier analysis, in which a proposed districting map is compared against the ensemble to determine whether it behaves atypically; this methodology often appears in expert testimony in redistricting litigation. We show that when the underlying dual graph is a triangular subset of the triangular lattice with side length 5 or larger, and each district consists of two merged geographic regions, the associated ReCom chain is irreducible. This provides another entry in the very small list of known classes of ReCom chains for which irreducibility has been established. We also demonstrate the fragility of this phenomenon by constructing an infinite family of maps for which the corresponding ReCom chain is not irreducible. Indeed, we produce a districting map that, after implementing a single ReCom move, always yields the same original map. These examples remain structurally close to the triangular lattice: they arise as subdivisions of the triangular lattice, and the resulting graphs have maximum degree at most 8. Finally, we prove irreducibility for a further special case: the ReCom chain on a 3 x n grid graph partitioned into three districts of size n.