Modeling pest dynamics in trap cropping to improve yield: the effects of attraction, retention, and land allocation

Matthew H Holden

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arXiv · 2606.10605

Modeling pest dynamics in trap cropping to improve yield: the effects of attraction, retention, and land allocation

Matthew H Holden

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Abstract

Trap crops reduce damage to a cash (main) crop by attracting pests away from it. Yet this protection is weakened when pests disperse back into the cash crop. In this paper, we focus on the importance of preventing this backflow, showing that effective trap cropping depends jointly on how strongly pests are attracted to trap plants and how rarely they leave them. Together with the proportion of the field devoted to trap plants, these processes determine both the efficacy and feasibility of trap cropping at commercial scales. We formalise this relationship using a simple yield-maximisation framework, in which growers weigh pest suppression benefits against the land sacrificed to trap plants. The model shows that when dispersal from trap plants equals that from the cash crop, optimal trap coverage can exceed 20 to 30 percent of the landscape, levels rarely acceptable to growers. However, reducing pest dispersal off trap plants to just one-quarter of cash crop dispersal lowers the optimal required trap area to approximately 5 percent, transforming trap cropping from impractical to feasible. Understanding these relationships can guide trap-cropping design, from plant choice to targeted interventions that reduce pest movement, to minimise damage, maximise yield, and make trap cropping a reliable component of sustainable pest management.

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Matthew H Holden. 2026-06-09. Modeling pest dynamics in trap cropping to improve yield: the effects of attraction, retention, and land allocation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.10605

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