SCAR dynamics of adolescent substance use: peer influence, dropout, and bifurcation structure in a school-based model

Abstract

We develop a four-compartment susceptible--casual--addicted--resistant (SCAR) model for adolescent substance use in a high-school setting. The model divides students into susceptible non-users, casual or experimental users, students with sustained or substance-use-disorder (SUD)-level involvement, and resistant students in protective anti-use environments. It includes peer-driven initiation, escalation from casual to problematic use, protective peer influence, school disengagement, and partial re-entry after rehabilitation. Qualitative analysis and bifurcation diagrams show three main results. First, the return parameter \(ϕ\) separates two regimes: when \(ϕ=1\), the total population is conserved and interior equilibria may exist; when \(ϕ<1\), problematic use causes net school-population loss, so positive scaled equilibria may not represent true endemic equilibria. Second, initiation and escalation are governed by distinct thresholds, meaning first use and progression to problematic use are dynamically different. Third, the model can exhibit multistability, including bistability between a substance-free state and a stable high-use state, so long-term outcomes may depend on initial conditions. These findings suggest that effective school policy should combine universal prevention, early intervention for casual users, targeted support for students at risk of problematic use, recovery-supportive environments, and strong school re-engagement pathways.