Twin-in-the-Loop Optimization and Fundamental Limits of Position--Velocity Estimation in Cell-Free ISAC Systems

Abstract

Digital twin (DT) networks require tight integration with wireless sensing, yet the fundamental limits of such coupling in cell-free integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) systems remain largely unexplored, particularly in the presence of fluid intelligent metasurfaces (FIM). This paper establishes a joint position-velocity Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) framework, operationalized through a twin-in-the-loop architecture. By leveraging a scatter-matrix decomposition of the velocity Fisher information, we show that single-base-station systems are inherently rank-deficient for two-dimensional velocity estimation, whereas cell-free deployments with multiple access-point pairs achieve full observability. The resulting CRB reveals a spatio-temporal decoupling: FIM shape optimization significantly improves position accuracy but does not affect the velocity CRB under isotropic waveforms while Doppler coupling asymmetrically enhances position estimation accuracy. Building on this analysis, we develop a closed-loop DT framework, deriving the critical mismatch angle in closed form and showing that angular diversity in cell-free systems mitigates DT prediction errors. We further characterize the optimal synchronization period and propose a confidence-aware scheduling strategy that reduces the DT update rate. Numerical results demonstrate substantial performance gains over single-base-station systems, with improvements attributed to angular diversity, Doppler-position coupling, and FIM adaptation.