Sustainable Heating with Karma: A Simulation Study of the KTH Live-In Lab

Abstract

Space heating in buildings accounts for 10% of the global CO2 footprint. The widespread adoption of energy-efficient heating technology, e.g., heat pumps, could help reduce this figure, but technology alone may not suffice to reach carbon neutrality. Additionally, human occupants have an important role to play by adopting sustainable heating behaviors, e.g., avoid excessive window opening in the winter or (pre-)heat their units while clean energy is abundant. Thus far demand response policies aimed at promoting these behaviors have been monetary, which discriminates against low-income households and exposes human occupants who do not actively engage with real-time control signals to financial risks. This paper instead investigates the suitability of a non-monetary karma economy for promoting sustainable heating behaviors. Karma leverages the repeated and dynamic nature of heating energy allocations to attain climate targets both fairly and efficiently over time without resorting to financial means. As a first step towards experimentally validating the karma concept with real human occupants in the KTH Live-In Lab, we perform a simulation study on a digital model of the Live-In Lab. The study provides initial estimates of expected effects to guide the design of human-in-the-loop experiments, as well as assists with designing and tuning the karma economy in this context. As a specific example, we investigate how incorporating consumption memory in the form of karma affects window opening behaviors in comparison to conventional memory-less heating operation.