Household coping mechanisms under grid failure: Evidence from a high electrification context in Lebanon

Abstract

Despite near-universal electrification in many countries, electricity supply shortages continue to shape household energy use. This paper examines how households adapt to chronic grid failure in high-electrification, high-dependence contexts, using Lebanon as a case study. Drawing on original survey data from 1,000 households, we analyze both supply-side coping mechanisms such as diesel generators and solar photovoltaic (PV)-battery systems, and demand-side adaptations, including load shifting and demand suppression. The results reveal a landscape of household responses, where socioeconomic status plays a central role in determining access to backup solutions and the extent of met demand. While diesel generators remain widespread, a transition toward PV-battery systems is observed, especially among financially capable households. However, decentralized self-generation is associated with inefficiencies, including substantial levels of curtailed solar generation. On the demand side, households exhibit reductions in electricity use, leading to distinct consumption profiles depending on the type of backup system employed. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between met and unmet demand when assessing energy needs under unreliable supply. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a quantitative characterization of the interaction between self-generation and demand adaptation in a supply-constrained high-electrification context. It also offers empirical demand profiles that incorporate suppressed consumption, addressing a key gap in electricity system planning. From a policy perspective, the results underscore the need to account for unmet demand, address inequities in access to coping technologies, and reduce inefficiencies in decentralized systems.