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arXiv · 2606.18824

Where Will They Go? Modelling Multimodal Pedestrian Manoeuvres from Ego-centric Videos

Yuxuan Xie·Nicolas Pugeault·Chongfeng Wei·Hubert P. H. Shum·Edmond S. L. Ho
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Abstract

Pedestrian trajectory prediction from an on-board ego-centric camera is challenging since it depends on complex interactions with vehicles and scene context, as well as the intention of the pedestrian. The task becomes even more challenging since pedestrian intention is often ambiguous from historical observations alone, leading to an inherently multimodal distribution over future trajectories. Existing CVAE-based predictors learn a latent representation by aligning the prior conditioned on trajectory history with the posterior conditioned on both history and future trajectories. This alignment may suppress multimodality in the latent space, leading to mixed-mode predictions that interpolate between distinct future behaviours. In this paper, we propose MMPM, a mode-aware framework that separately models future trajectory distributions into semantically meaningful modes based on the pedestrian's crossing behavior. MMPM consists of two modules: behavior-aware Pedestrian Interaction Module (PIM) that jointly captures pedestrian-vehicle and pedestrian-environment interactions by introducing gaze and hand gestures, and a CVAE-based Mode-aware Trajectory Predictor (MTP) module to model the future trajectory distributions in two modes, crossing and non-crossing the road, separately. A query-based decoder further enforces mode consistency during decoding. Experiments on PIE and JAAD datasets show that our method surpasses state-of-the-art baselines. Our proposed MTP is model-agnostic, which can be integrated into existing frameworks such as BiTrap and SGNet to further improve future trajectory prediction performance. We additionally introduce a data-driven validation protocol that retrieves spatio-temporally consistent real-world trajectories from the same scene and evaluates predictions against these retrieved examples, demonstrating improved frame-wise displacement errors over previous work.

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Yuxuan Xie, Nicolas Pugeault, Chongfeng Wei, Hubert P. H. Shum, Edmond S. L. Ho. 2026-07-17. Where Will They Go? Modelling Multimodal Pedestrian Manoeuvres from Ego-centric Videos. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18824

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