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arXiv · 2606.20406

Flexible modeling of bimodal distributions via skewed-$t$ mixtures

Marco Bee·Flavio Santi
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Abstract

We propose a mixture of location-scale skewed-$t$ distributions to fit bimodal, skewed and heavy-tailed data. In particular, the mixture is based on the skewed-$t$ distribution by Fernández and Steel (1998), so that the model-building procedure can be easily extended to mixtures of other symmetric distributions. After studying the properties of the mixture, we develop a maximum likelihood estimation approach via the EM algorithm and a likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of no skewness in any given component. A simulation-based comparison to a recently proposed mixture of g-and-h distributions suggests that the performance of the proposed model is excellent, in terms of both estimation precision in well-specified setups and modeling capability in mis-specified frameworks. Fitting the model to the Standard & Poor's 500 distortion allows us to confirm the bimodality of its distribution, with the implication that the US stock market has historically been in bearish or bullish conditions, rather than near its fundamental value.

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Marco Bee, Flavio Santi. 2026-06-18. Flexible modeling of bimodal distributions via skewed-$t$ mixtures. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20406

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