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arXiv · 2606.22008

An Optimal Transportation Approach for Improved Confidence Intervals

Christophe Quentin Valvason·Eustasio del Barrio·Stefan Sperlich
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Abstract

Optimal transport methods have recently attracted a lot of attention in statistics. Their appeal lies in providing a geometric framework for comparing probability measures, leading to new perspectives on classical problems. A central problem in statistics is the construction of valid confidence sets as fundamental inferential tools in practice. A well-known problem is that for complex problems or relatively small samples, their asymptotic approximations often show poor performance. This suggests to apply optimal transport methods when constructing confidence sets for hard problems to improve their coverage properties. We introduce such a procedure, derive the theoretical framework studying consistency and error bounds for the coverage probability of the resulting intervals. To guarantee feasibility in practice, we propose data-driven choices for our hyper parameters. This approach extends classical quantile-based confidence intervals by leveraging optimal couplings to minimize coverage deviations. Simulations demonstrate striking performance in different estimation problems, outperforming standard methods in accuracy and robustness.

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Christophe Quentin Valvason, Eustasio del Barrio, Stefan Sperlich. 2026-07-06. An Optimal Transportation Approach for Improved Confidence Intervals. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.22008

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