Inflation as an emergent phenomenon

Alessio Emanuele Biondo; Mauro Gallegati

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arXiv · 2607.07864

Inflation as an emergent phenomenon

Alessio Emanuele Biondo·Mauro Gallegati

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Abstract

We develop an agent-based model in which inflation emerges from decentralized price-setting and credit-financed production in an endogenous-money economy. Firms operate under working-capital constraints, form market-based price expectations through heterogeneous adaptive learning, and set prices via cost-plus rules with endogenous mark-ups. Bank lending simultaneously creates deposits, while heterogeneous lending rates and credit rationing shape firms' financing costs and, through unit costs, their pricing decisions. The economy features interacting production and credit networks: intermediate-input linkages propagate cost shocks across supply chains, while bank--firm relationships transmit financial conditions across firms. The interaction of network-based pass-through, state-dependent pricing incentives, and evolving credit conditions generates inflationary regimes, including episodes driven by pricing cascades and feedback loops.

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Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Mauro Gallegati. 2026-07-08. Inflation as an emergent phenomenon. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.07864

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