The geopolitics of knowledge: tipping points, national fingerprints, and the unequal globalization of science

Abstract

Science is often portrayed as a universal and self-contained system, driven solely by the internal logic of knowledge accumulation and isolated from the turbulences of the socio-political world. In this paper, we challenge this narrative by providing systematic quantitative evidence that the global scientific ecosystem is deeply shaped by geopolitical transformations. Using a large-scale dataset of scientific publications drawn from the OpenAlex database, spanning over five decades and covering virtually all countries and disciplinary areas, we track the evolution of national research profiles and show that geopolitical dynamics shape scientific agendas at multiple scales. At the global level, intrinsic scientific change is slow and cumulative, but exogenous shocks, such as Chernobyl, September 11, and COVID-19, produce rapid disruptions that synchronously reconfigure the priorities of many countries at once. At the country level, we document a broad globalization of knowledge, yet deeply heterogeneous: while Global North countries converge toward a shared international agenda, Global South countries display strong dependence on international resources alongside locally distinctive research interests. Among emerging Southern economies, scientific power is increasingly asserted through specialized and independent agendas. Finally, we observe a reorganization of global scientific influence toward a more polycentric structure, with the emergence of a Southern cluster gravitating around Brazil and Indonesia as new regional hubs.