Diffusion-Residual Model Predictive Steering Control for Vehicle Stabilization at the Limit of Handling under Model Uncertainty

Abstract

At the limit of handling, a stabilizing MPC depends on the yaw-rate reference it tracks and the stable-handling envelope it enforces, both operating-point-dependent and unknown a priori, so fixed or worst-case settings are either too conservative or unsafe. We learn this uncertainty with a conditional diffusion residual model and apply it to the controller's reference and constraints rather than its control law. Conditioned on the steering command, the model returns the residual's mean and a predictive spread: the mean re-sizes the tracked yaw reference, while the spread, propagated over the prediction horizon, tightens the stable-handling envelope through a one-sided chance back-off. Together these form the proposed diffusion-residual MPC (D-res), so caution is anticipated ahead of the tracking error rather than corrected after it by a high-gain loop. Because only two moments per command are needed, the generator is tabulated offline and the online controller adds a single table lookup to the baseline MPC, with no in-loop diffusion; it runs within the 100 Hz budget on an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Xavier (worst-case 4.08 ms per step). Across a 7-DOF model and high-fidelity CarMaker co-simulation spanning vehicle, tire, road, and maneuver diversity, D-res reduces peak side-slip where the fixed bicycle model is least accurate and restores directional stability on low-friction maneuvers, where the fixed reference over-commands the available grip.