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arXiv · 2607.11905

GraphCast Skill and Systematic Biases in Indian Summer Monsoon Forecasts: Evaluation Against ERA5 and IMERG

Somnath Luitel·Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay·Manmeet Singh·Sandeep Juneja·Saptarishi Dhanuka
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Abstract

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the most dynamically complex components of the global climate system, yet its accurate prediction remains challenging for both physics-based and emerging AI weather models. We present a climatological evaluation of Google's GraphCast against ERA5 reanalysis and the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation dataset during the boreal summer (June-September, JJAS) for 2021-2024. Deterministic GraphCast forecasts initialized at 00 UTC are composited to evaluate +24 h, +48 h, and +72 h lead times over the full ISM domain. The analysis examines the climatological mean state (rainfall, surface temperature, and low-level winds), rainfall intensity distribution, thermodynamic structure (tropospheric temperature gradient, DTT; apparent heat source and moisture sink, Q1 and Q2), monsoon dynamics (vertical wind shear), and rainfall variability across intraseasonal, synoptic, and spectral timescales. GraphCast reproduces the broad spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of monsoon rainfall with good fidelity at short lead times but exhibits a domain-averaged wet bias over the core monsoon region. It also substantially suppresses rainfall variability across nearly all timescales (regional power-spectrum variance ratio of 0.14 relative to IMERG) and produces a compressed rainfall intensity distribution, overestimating moderately heavy rainfall (95th percentile) while systematically underrepresenting the most extreme events. These biases are accompanied by a deficient lower-tropospheric Q1 profile and weaker northward-propagating intraseasonal variability. Together, the results reveal a consistent deterministic-smoothing signature in GraphCast's precipitation forecasts and provide benchmark diagnostics for evaluating next-generation AI weather models for tropical medium-range forecasting (+24 h to +72 h).

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Somnath Luitel, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Manmeet Singh, Sandeep Juneja, Saptarishi Dhanuka. 2026-07-24. GraphCast Skill and Systematic Biases in Indian Summer Monsoon Forecasts: Evaluation Against ERA5 and IMERG. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.11905

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