TRACE-PCa: Predicting Prostate Cancer Progression from Longitudinal MRI During Active Surveillance

Hongye Zeng; Shreeram Athreya; Dingyuan Dai; Steve Raman; Leonard Marks; William Speier; Corey Arnold

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2607.13506

TRACE-PCa: Predicting Prostate Cancer Progression from Longitudinal MRI During Active Surveillance

Hongye Zeng·Shreeram Athreya·Dingyuan Dai·Steve Raman·Leonard Marks·William Speier·Corey Arnold

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Active surveillance (AS) is the preferred strategy for favorable-risk prostate cancer, yet current protocols rely on scheduled repeat biopsies, most of which reveal no progression and are unnecessary. Existing risk-stratification tools operate on single time-point imaging or depend on explicit lesion segmentation, limiting their ability to capture longitudinal change and excluding patients without an MRI-visible lesion. In this study, we propose an end-to-end temporal and multimodal model for predicting pathological progression during AS without lesion segmentation. We encode each serial scan with a pretrained 3D MRI foundation model and introduce a temporal attention gate that recalibrates the multi-visit features to amplify focal imaging changes associated with progression. The gated imaging representation is then fused with clinical variables in a multimodal framework to estimate the probability of progression. Validated on a longitudinal AS cohort, our approach consistently outperforms competing baselines and performs comparably to the radiologist assessment representing current clinical practice. It maintains high negative predictive value while achieving higher positive predictive value, demonstrating its potential to safely reduce unnecessary biopsies during surveillance.

Explore related subjects

cs.CV

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Hongye Zeng, Shreeram Athreya, Dingyuan Dai, Steve Raman, Leonard Marks, William Speier, Corey Arnold. 2026-07-15. TRACE-PCa: Predicting Prostate Cancer Progression from Longitudinal MRI During Active Surveillance. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13506

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

SSP-GNN: Learning to Track via Bilevel Optimization

We propose a graph-based tracking formulation for multi-object tracking (MOT) where target detections contain kinematic information and re-identification features (attributes). Our method applies a successive shortest paths (SSP) algorithm to a tracking graph defined over a batch of frames. The edge costs in this tracking graph are computed via a message-passing network, a graph neural network (GNN) variant. The parameters of the GNN, and hence, the tracker, are learned end-to-end on a training set of example ground-truth tracks and detections. Specifically, learning takes the form of bilevel optimization guided by our novel loss function. We evaluate our algorithm on simulated scenarios to understand its sensitivity to scenario aspects and model hyperparameters. Across varied scenario complexities, our method compares favorably to a strong baseline.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

AdaptiveCDM: Source-Free Few-Shot Domain Adaptation for Cell Detection in Microscopic Images

Cross-domain cell detection for microscopic images suffers from performance degradation due to distribution shifts across imaging domains. Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) strategies, attempt to overcome domain sift without requiring annotated data from target. However, requirement of availability of annotated data from the source domain and large-size data from target domain are both challenging limitations for realistic scenarios. This is especially true in medical imaging, where privacy requirements might prevent access to annotated source data, and costly data acquisition restricts extensive sampling of the target domain. To address these challenges, we propose AdaptiveCDM, a modular framework for Source-Free Few-Shot Domain Adaptive Object Detection (SF-FSDAOD) setting, that adapts a pretrained source model using only few labeled target images without accessing source data. AdaptiveCDM combines Resolution-Aware Augmentation (RAug) and Category-Aware Representation Learning (CARL). RAug alleviates the scarcity and class imbalance by augmenting instance balanced training examples, while preserving the scale fidelity and morphological properties of cellular structures. CARL enhances discriminative representation learning by encouraging class-consistent proposals, improving both localization and classification. We also introduce two competitive baselines for proposed setting: Faster-FreeShot and MT-FreeShot. Our approach achieves 40.4/43.4 mAP0.5 on M5 and 67.1/75.5 mAP0.5 on Raabin-WBC under 2-/5-shot adaptation. Despite using only a few labeled target images and no source data, AdaptiveCDM achieves competitive or superior performance compared with SOTA methods under their respective supervision settings. Ablations and qualitative analyses further substantiate the contribution of each component and the effectiveness of AdaptiveCDM in low-data regimes. Code/models will be available.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Weighted Fusion of Image and Synthetic Event for Video Anomaly Detection

Most existing video anomaly detectors rely on RGB frames alone, which limit their ability to capture abrupt or transient motion cues that are critical for identifying anomalous events. We propose Uncertainty Weighted Image Event Fusion (IEF-VAD), a framework that integrates complementary RGB and synthetic motion information through a principled weighting mechanism. The method models the high variance and heavy tailed characteristics of synthetic motion cues with a Student's t likelihood, computes value level inverse variance weights using a Laplace approximation to prevent the image modality from overshadowing motion information, and performs iterative refinement to suppress residual cross modal noise. This formulation provides a more balanced and reliable fusion process compared to cross attention or gating based approaches that often suffer from modality dominance. Without requiring an event camera or frame level annotations, IEF-VAD achieves new state of the art performance on multiple real world anomaly detection benchmarks and remains stable under degradation applied to individual modalities. The results indicate that extracting and integrating complementary motion cues is an effective direction for robust video understanding across diverse environments.

cs.CV↗