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arXiv · 2607.15445

A New Method to Predict the Effect of an Intervention in the Host Population to Reduce the Magnitude of an Outbreak of a Vector-Borne Infection

Francisco Antônio Bezerra Coutinho·Marcos Amaku·Esper Georges Kallas·Eduardo Massad
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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new model to estimate the impact of an intervention on human hosts of a vector-borne infection, such as dengue, which occurs in yearly outbreaks of different magnitudes. The model applies to these outbreaks and, in fact, is independent of their intensity, that is, it does not require the steady-state assumption. The model takes as input the officially reported age-dependent number of cases of a vector-borne infection. It is deterministic and does not account for stochasticity. Our objective is to estimate the impact of the intervention (the efficacy), and we rely on the observed fact that the age distribution of the proportion of cases of the infections transmitted by the same vector is independent of both the intensity of transmission and the geographic area studied, at least for Brazilian regions. This finding is highlighted in the main text and forms the basis of our calculations. A hypothetical intervention is simulated using a dengue vaccine, which allows the determination of the optimal strategy for a vaccination campaign.

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Francisco Antônio Bezerra Coutinho, Marcos Amaku, Esper Georges Kallas, Eduardo Massad. 2026-07-16. A New Method to Predict the Effect of an Intervention in the Host Population to Reduce the Magnitude of an Outbreak of a Vector-Borne Infection. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.15445

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