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arXiv · 2607.19206

Some cautionary tales about Bayesian predictive inference

Emanuela Dreassi·Fabrizio Leisen·Luca Pratelli·Pietro Rigo
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Abstract

Two misunderstandings, frequently arising in Bayesian predictive inference, are discussed. The first deals with the data generating mechanism, while the second consists in overestimating the role played by asymptotic exchangeability. Some consequences of such misunderstandings are highlighted through examples.

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Emanuela Dreassi, Fabrizio Leisen, Luca Pratelli, Pietro Rigo. 2026-07-21. Some cautionary tales about Bayesian predictive inference. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19206

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