Modeling the HI-Halo Connection: Evolution, Scatter, and a Halo-based Prescription for 21-cm Mock Catalogs

Abstract

The redshifted 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen (HI) is a powerful tracer of large-scale structure, and post-reionization HI intensity mapping is emerging as a competitive cosmological probe whose interpretation requires a description of how HI populates galaxies and dark matter halos. We characterize the HI--halo mass relation, its redshift evolution, and its intrinsic scatter, identifying its secondary dependences. We use the updated GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (GAEA) semi-analytic model, applied to the Millennium-I and Millennium-II simulations, to predict the HI mass function (HIMF) and the HI--halo mass relation from the present day to redshift $z\simeq5$. At $z=0$, the model reproduces the observed HIMF and its decomposition by host-halo mass. The median HI--halo mass relation rises with halo mass, peaks near $10^{11.7}\,M_\odot$, declines as central galaxies are quenched by feedback from active galactic nuclei, and rises again where satellites dominate, approaching a single power law at high redshift. We show that the substantial scatter, of about 0.5 dex, is not random but is governed by halo assembly: at fixed mass, higher-spin, later-forming, and less-concentrated halos are systematically HI-richer, with spin together with either concentration or formation time accounting for part of this scatter and leaving an intrinsic dispersion of about 0.3 dex. We encode the median relation, these secondary trends, and the intrinsic scatter in a compact, physically motivated prescription expressed entirely in terms of quantities available in dark-matter halo catalogs. This prescription reproduces the full scatter and enables the construction of large-volume 21-cm mock catalogs for interpreting ongoing intensity-mapping measurements with SKA precursor facilities, such as MeerKAT, and for preparing for forthcoming surveys with the SKA.