Modeling Dependence Structures in Astronomical Multi-Band Time Series Data via Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

Abstract

Modern astronomical time-domain surveys routinely collect multi-band light curves that provide complementary information about the physical processes governing source variability. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a flexible probabilistic framework for modeling irregularly sampled and noisy time-series data. While considerable attention has been devoted to developing covariance kernels for individual time series, comparatively less attention has been paid to the statistical representation of dependence among multiple photometric bands. In this work, we present a unified statistical framework for modeling such dependence structures using multi-output GPs. Within this framework, we consider two complementary formulations. The covariance-based formulation specifies dependence directly through matrix-valued covariance functions and emphasizes the stochastic properties of the observed light curves, including covariance functions and power spectral densities. In contrast, the latent-process formulation represents the observed light curves as transformations of latent GPs and emphasizes the physical mechanisms generating the observed dependence. To illustrate these formulations, we develop covariance-based and latent-process multi-output damped random walk models and derive their corresponding spectral representations. We further demonstrate the practical implications of dependence-structure modeling through applications to multi-band active galactic nucleus variability and continuum reverberation mapping. Rather than advocating a universally preferred formulation, this work provides a principled basis for selecting dependence structures according to the scientific objectives and clarifies how this choice influences the statistical characterization and scientific interpretation of stochastic variability in astronomical sources.