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arXiv · 2607.22282

Statistical validation of template-based parameter extraction from toy thrust distributions for future FCC-ee studies

Fatih ilgin
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Abstract

A statistically reliable parameter-extraction procedure should be validated independently of the physical and detector models to which it will eventually be applied. A template-based inference framework is developed and tested using controlled toy thrust distributions as a methodological benchmark for future FCC-ee event-shape studies. The model contains two-jet-like and three-jet-like event components whose relative contribution is governed by a continuous control parameter. Three extraction strategies are compared: a discrete Pearson-type $χ^2$ distance, a discrete multinomial negative-log-likelihood estimator, and a likelihood estimator based on linearly interpolated templates. Their performance is quantified with 10,000 pseudo-experiments for samples containing 200--2000 events. Off-grid recovery, histogram-binning variations, template-statistics variations, and a model-mismatch test based on modified momentum smearing are also studied. The multinomial likelihood consistently outperforms the simple uncorrelated Pearson-type baseline used here. For an input parameter of 0.30, the correct-template fraction increases from $0.467\pm0.005$ for 200 events to $0.934\pm0.002$ for 2000 events. Interpolation reduces off-grid discretization effects, with a maximum absolute mean bias of approximately 0.003 in the tested configuration. Model mismatch nevertheless produces measurable biases, demonstrating that nominal closure alone is insufficient to establish robustness. This study does not determine the physical strong coupling constant. It provides a controlled framework for comparing estimators, quantifying statistical resolution, and diagnosing model dependence before application to realistic parton-shower simulations, hadronization models, detector effects, and FCC-ee data.

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Fatih ilgin. 2026-07-24. Statistical validation of template-based parameter extraction from toy thrust distributions for future FCC-ee studies. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22282

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