Towards Real-World RUL Prediction for Aircraft Compressors Under Variable Conditions with Physics-Guided Domain Adaptation

Abstract

Remaining useful life prediction for aircraft centrifugal air compressors in real commercial operations poses challenges that controlled benchmark datasets do not expose. In-flight sensor signals superimpose genuine degradation on continuously varying operating conditions, and no channel can be assumed a priori to carry a reliable degradation signature. Moreover, models trained on one subset of a fleet generalize poorly to unseen aircraft and installation positions, a cross-domain problem of underappreciated practical severity. This paper presents a framework combining physics-guided processing with adaptive temporal encoding. A population-level selection procedure identifies surge margin as the most consistent degradation indicator across the fleet. Operating regime filtering and windowed aggregation recover the health trend from operational noise, and two physically motivated features encoding current health level and cumulative degradation rate enable cross-unit comparison without absolute signal values. Sinusoidal positional encoding provides lifecycle context without data leakage, and a structured cross-domain evaluation identifies encoding period mismatch as the primary mechanism of performance loss under fleet transfer. An adaptive recalibration scheme estimates each target unit's lifecycle scale from early observations alone, requiring no future information or labeled target data. The approach yields substantial, consistent gains in cross-domain accuracy across transfer scenarios of increasing domain distance, and a Gaussian Process Regression model further provides calibrated uncertainty estimates supporting risk-informed maintenance scheduling.