Geometry resolved atomic oxygen risk assessment for very low earth orbit spacecraft

Abstract

Atomic oxygen (AO) is a major durability concern for spacecraft in very low Earth orbit (VLEO), yet orbit-averaged fluence does not resolve exposure on individual surfaces and internal components. This study develops a geometry-resolved AO assessment by coupling NRLMSISE-00, HWM07, and SYSTEMA ATOMOX. One-year simulations were performed for a 350 km circular Sun-synchronous orbit at LTAN 06:00 and 12:00 using a baseline spacecraft, a wedge-modified body, and two synthetic aperture radar antenna sub-arrays. The LTAN 12:00 orbit produced 8-10% higher orbit-averaged AO flux than LTAN 06:00. For the baseline geometry, the ram-facing surface accumulated 6.9-7.5 x 10^21 atoms/cm^2, whereas side and zenith/nadir surfaces received only 3-5% of the ram fluence. Material-specific erosion yields changed the component-level risk ranking: the CFRP zenith panel was predicted to erode by 15.1-16.2 um/year despite receiving much lower fluence than the ram-facing multilayer insulation. The wedge generated approximately one order of magnitude spatial variation through local shielding. Housing openings also allowed AO to reach internal printed circuit boards, with maximum annual fluences of 9.5 x 10^16 and 4.0 x 10^19 atoms/cm^2 in the H- and V-polarized antenna models, respectively. HWM07 winds produced 10-20% side-panel asymmetry, which decreased below 1% when winds were disabled. Comparison with MISSE-8 reproduced the measured zenith-to-ram ratio of approximately 4% but underpredicted wake exposure, identifying a limitation of ballistic ray tracing. These results demonstrate that VLEO AO durability requires coupled consideration of orbit, atmospheric winds, geometry, and material response.