Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Covariance Control via Robust Linearization Remainder Bounds

Abstract

When dealing with nonlinear systems, classical covariance steering typically propagates uncertainty via first-order linearizations, discarding higher-order Taylor remainders. This truncation causes computed statistical moments to diverge from the true physical state distribution, often leading to chance constraint violations. This paper introduces a discrete-time Sequential Convex Programming (SCP) framework that casts the deterministic one-step nonlinear numerical map as a Linear Stochastic Inclusion. The The Taylor remainder is modeled as a state-independent unstructured uncertainty block, bounded over a uniform envelope. The second-moment tubes are propagated via what we refer to as a robust Stochastic Linear Matrix Inequality (S-LMI) derived from the Petersen's lemma, providing an upper bound on the expected uncentered second moment. Domain-exit risk is bounded analytically via a Markov trace inequality, and spatial chance constraints are enforced via Gauss unimodal second-moment bounds within a Difference-of-Convex program. Simulations on a state-dependent nonlinear dynamic system demonstrate constraint satisfaction.