Reliability-calibrated deep residual full-waveform inversion using geometry-invariant physics encoding: synthetic validation and zero-shot Marmousi-2 testing

Abstract

Neural networks that map seismic data directly to velocity models tend to memorize the acquisition geometry they were trained on, and their uncertainty estimates are rarely trustworthy once the data drift away from the training distribution. We describe a laptop-scale pipeline that addresses both problems. The network never sees shot gathers. Instead, variable acquisition geometries are mapped into a fixed model-space representation computed by classical physics operators: the starting model, a regularized classical inversion, two misfit-gradient images, and six illumination and wavenumber-coverage maps from fast-marching traveltimes. The learned component is not a replacement for FWI; it is a calibrated residual corrector applied to this physics-derived prior. A six-member heterogeneous ensemble with per-pixel variance heads is calibrated by physics-conditioned conformal prediction, giving finite-sample pixel-wise marginal coverage on the calibration distribution. Beyond that distribution, a held-out-shot physics audit simulates shots the inversion never used through samples of the predictive distribution and rescales interval width where their data-space coverage peaks; no ground truth is involved. On a corpus of 1000 synthetic models spanning six acquisition families, the ensemble reduces error by 38% relative to its classical prior and transfers to never-seen geometries without measurable degradation. Applied zero-shot to the full 17 km Marmousi-2 line, it lowers the error from 354 to 304 m/s while raw coverage collapses to 0.42; the audit restores coverage to 0.89-0.91 across eleven corruption conditions covering noise, wavelet error, and shot decimation, and its peak height cleanly separates physics mismatch from benign corruptions. Budget-matched gather-based baselines underperform substantially off their training acquisition. Code and checkpoints will be archived on Zenodo.