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arXiv · 2608.02923

Estimating Climate Sensitivity Using Bayesian Model Averaging for CMIP Models

Jitong Jiang·Skylar Shi·Adrian E. Raftery
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Abstract

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) is a key metric for linking greenhouse gas emissions to global temperature change and informing climate policy. However, extant estimates of the TCRE often depend on subjective model selection or assumed sensitivity ranges, with limited validation against observed data. We develop a fully statistical data-driven approach using a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to estimate the TCRE. This uses 37 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), weighted according to their consistency with observed temperature data. Compared to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) TCRE estimate, our BMA approach yields a very likely range (90% interval) that overlaps substantially with that from the AR6, but with a higher mean and a lower standard deviation. The resulting projections of global temperature change to 2100 show somewhat higher warming and less uncertainty than some current methods. The use of statistical modeling methods makes it easier to validate the approach and to partition the uncertainty according to its sources. Out-of-sample predictive validation shows the method to be well calibrated. Variance decomposition shows model parameter uncertainty to be a main source of projection variance.

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Jitong Jiang, Skylar Shi, Adrian E. Raftery. 2026-08-03. Estimating Climate Sensitivity Using Bayesian Model Averaging for CMIP Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.02923

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