Generalized propensity score weighting for functional causal inference framework

Simone Ciardulli; Nicole Fontana; Simone Vantini; Francesca Ieva

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arXiv · 2608.03200

Generalized propensity score weighting for functional causal inference framework

Simone Ciardulli·Nicole Fontana·Simone Vantini·Francesca Ieva

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Abstract

Estimating causal effects in observational studies requires adjustment for confounding, a task that becomes challenging when the exposure is a function observed over a continuous domain rather than a scalar variable. We develop a functional propensity score weighting framework that achieves covariate balance by removing dependence between time-varying treatments and observed confounders, thereby enabling estimation of marginal causal effects in settings with functional treatments, covariates, and outcomes. We propose a dual formulation of the weight estimation problem that yields a smooth unconstrained optimization and improves computational scalability. The proposed framework extends naturally to settings with time-varying covariates and to longitudinal outcomes via a function-on-function marginal structural model, allowing estimation of causal effect surfaces. The proposed method improves covariate balance, estimation accuracy, and computational efficiency compared to the existing approach and retains these properties when extended to functional covariates and outcomes. We apply the method to data from the UK Biobank to estimate the causal effect of body mass index trajectories on the risk of Type 2 Diabetes and on subsequent glycated hemoglobin trajectories, a functional measure of metabolic status.

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Simone Ciardulli, Nicole Fontana, Simone Vantini, Francesca Ieva. 2026-08-04. Generalized propensity score weighting for functional causal inference framework. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03200

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