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arXiv · 2608.03750

Predictive Triggering for Outage-Resilient Threshold Decisions over Short-Packet Links

Nho-Duc Tran·Aamir Mahmood·Mikael Gidlund
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Abstract

Remote threshold decisions require more than accurate state estimates: the posterior must support reliable alarm/no-alarm decisions and, when possible, anticipate early critical decisions. We study this problem over short-packet wireless links with outage risk. We derive false-positive/false-negative feasibility conditions that define a decision-feasible region of the estimation and yield a predictive decision-update trigger. To protect predictive updates from outages, we add AoI-controlled resilience updates that both detect disruptions and maintain freshness. A two-state Markov surrogate of the thresholded process, matched to its one-step switching statistics, enables tractable long-term reliability-energy analysis. Then, we jointly optimized transmit power and AoI-controlled resilience update probabilities. Simulations show earlier, reliable decisions at competitive energy with baselines.

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Nho-Duc Tran, Aamir Mahmood, Mikael Gidlund. 2026-08-04. Predictive Triggering for Outage-Resilient Threshold Decisions over Short-Packet Links. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03750

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