Empirical behavioural heterogeneity shapes the dynamics of an agent-based land use model

Abstract

Land use models often represent decision-makers as homogeneous and rational, overlooking socio-psychological diversity and potentially generating rapid, coordinated land use responses that contrast with observed land use patterns. Here, we integrate an empirical typology of European forestry practitioners into an agent-based land use model by translating survey-based behavioural profiles into cognitive parameters governing endogenous decision-making processes. We distinguish five practitioner types and parametrise heterogeneous agent populations according to the empirically observed distribution of these types. Using a stylised model landscape, we compare these heterogeneous populations against a homogeneous rational-choice baseline and single-type populations. Compared with the homogeneous rational-choice baseline, heterogeneous populations dampen synchronised responses to changing ecosystem service demand, producing more gradual land use dynamics and a higher prevalence of medium intensity management, that better reflect empirical land use patterns. Our experiments reveal that similar land use patterns can emerge through different behavioural mechanisms, while the behaviour of individual decision-making types depends strongly on the population context in which they are embedded. Together, these two findings show that individual behavioural responses and land use outcomes co-evolve rather than decision-making types mapping onto fixed management practices. Explicitly representing socio-psychological diversity can therefore improve the realism and policy-relevance of agent-based land-use models by capturing feedbacks between cognition, social interactions, and emergent land use dynamics. Empirical data may make this representation possible, but models can also use this capability to explore behavioural heterogeneity as a key source of uncertainty when data are absent.