Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2608.08851

Estimated Demand for Mega-Constellation Internet Service

Akhil Rao
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The near-term growth of the commercial space economy and sustainability of the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment depends on the commercial prospects of large LEO satellite telecommunications constellations (``mega-constellations''). If successful, mega-constellations can spur competition between launch providers, which may lead to lower launch prices. They may also demand orbital sustainability services and/or generate additional collision risk, which may in turn affect space sustainability interests. Consumer demand for mega-constellations' internet services is critical to their commercial success. This analysis presents a method to estimate consumer demand for mega-constellations' internet services, using SpaceX's Starlink over December 2021--November 2023 as an example. This analysis finds that Starlink users are highly concentrated in the wealthiest countries. It also finds that consumer demand for Starlink is growing more slowly than orbital capacity is being added and more slowly than demand for non-Starlink internet overall. Continuation of these trends may indicate that the market for mega-constellation internet is less lucrative than previous forecasts have indicated.

Explore related subjects

econ.GNq-fin.EC

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Akhil Rao. 2026-08-09. Estimated Demand for Mega-Constellation Internet Service. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08851

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Local Media and the Shaping of Social Norms: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak

Media's influence on norms and behavior is widely recognized. Less is known about the role played by media being local. I examine this in a high-stakes context, the Ebola outbreak in Guinea. I exploit quasi-random variation in access to radio and the timing of a public-health campaign aired on community radio. I find that 12-17% of Ebola cases could have been prevented if places with access to a neighboring community radio station had instead had their own. Impacts are driven by radio being local rather than by ethno-linguistic belonging. Local media facilitates coordination in behaviors observed and sanctioned locally.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2026

Productivity Shocks and Input Misallocation: A Decomposition

This paper asks how much input misallocation productivity uncertainty generates and at which stage of input decisions it arises. I separate revenue productivity by when each component is revealed and trace each into the gap between an input's marginal revenue product and its price. In six European countries, shocks revealed after an input is committed account for 20 percent of capital gap dispersion and 5 percent of labor gap dispersion. An unanticipated one percent rise in productivity raises the capital gap by 0.92 percent and the labor gap by 0.19 percent, because most of the shock passes into the wage.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2026

When Do Type-Specific Wages Buffer Distributional Incidence in TANK?

When do relative wages buffer the unequal incidence of aggregate shocks? I derive a consumption-gap decomposition and a present-value condition for partial offset in a TANK model. An extension separates wage-setting demand elasticity from substitution between labor segments and allows each segment to contain both financial types. With a zero inherited wage gap and a same-sign discounted wedge, substitution above one gives offsetting earnings reallocation; substitution below one gives amplification. The channel disappears when financial types have identical segment exposure. Numerical experiments assess these mechanisms, shock persistence, policy feedback, and aggregate-IRF matching. In the nested perfect-alignment monetary benchmark, the peak consumption gap is about two-fifths smaller under type-specific wages than under the common-wage closure. These are conditional model comparisons, not empirical effect estimates or welfare rankings.

econ.GN↗