Observational Evidence Revises Presumed Large Ozone Worsening from Nitrogen Oxides Cuts

Abstract

Many air quality models indicate that rapid reductions in nitrogen oxides (NOx), without comparable controls on volatile organic compounds, have worsened summertime ozone pollution in urban China, producing a short-term strong ozone penalty. Other models, however, simulate the opposite response, suggesting that cutting down NOx has already helped mitigate ozone pollution. This contradiction obscures understanding of atmospheric chemistry and weakens guidance on control policy design. Here, we reconcile this disagreement and reveal the underestimated benefits of NOx emission reductions using a machine learning framework integrated with an observational constraint. We first constrain ozone responses under a 30% NOx reduction, comparable to the magnitude of NOx emission declines across major Chinese city clusters between 2015 and 2023. The constrained results indicate that ozone decreases prevail across urban China, with only small increases mainly in July 2015. This challenges the widespread ozone worsening that many models predict. We then extend the constraint across 10-60% NOx reductions, establishing its use for rapid ozone sensitivity diagnosis without exhaustive scenario modeling. This diagnosis shows that sustained NOx control increasingly favored ozone mitigation during 2015-2023, benefiting a growing share of China's population. These results underscore that continued NOx reductions can deliver larger ozone mitigation benefits than many models suggest.