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arXiv · 2608.13219

Statistical Noise and Missing Forcing Limit Estimates of Earth's Feedback from Prescribed Sea-Surface Temperature Simulations

Gergana Gyuleva·Reto Knutti·Robin Noyelle·Urs Beyerle·Erich Fischer·Sebastian Sippel
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Abstract

Earth's feedback parameter measures how the Earth system responds to forcing and is inversely proportional to climate sensitivity. Sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns can modulate the value of the feedback parameter. Differences between observed and simulated SSTs have raised the question how the observed SSTs evolution impacts the global feedback. The standard method for estimating this effect uses observed SSTs prescribed to an atmospheric model with fixed pre-industrial atmospheric forcing. This method makes two assumptions: first, that the observed SSTs capture all relevant effects from the forcing, so that prescribing a time-varying forcing is unnecessary; second, that the temporal variations in the feedback parameter are driven by the evolving SST pattern and can be estimated via moving-window regressions. We test these assumptions by running controlled experiments in which SSTs from fully-coupled historical simulations are prescribed to an atmospheric model. We find that the prescribed-SST experiments fail to capture the coupled feedback evolution. This is explained by two effects: First, the absence of prescribed atmospheric forcing, and second, statistical noise arising from the computation of moving-window regressions. We find no evidence of any significant relationship between evolving SST patterns and changes in the feedback time series in a 4000-year pre-industrial control simulation. Any trends in the feedback parameter detected on timescales shorter than ~100 years are indistinguishable from statistical noise, making their attribution to the evolving SST pattern extremely difficult. Our results imply that prescribed SST simulations offer limited potential for inferring temporal changes in Earth's parameter over the observational period.

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Gergana Gyuleva, Reto Knutti, Robin Noyelle, Urs Beyerle, Erich Fischer, Sebastian Sippel. 2026-08-18. Statistical Noise and Missing Forcing Limit Estimates of Earth's Feedback from Prescribed Sea-Surface Temperature Simulations. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13219

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