Proactive Road Safety Intervention in Australia: Predicting Risky Driving Hotspots from Connected Vehicle Data

Abstract

Road safety monitoring has historically been reactive, relying on crash-record analysis after fatalities and injuries have already occurred. Proactive identification of high-risk locations and dangerous driving behaviour before incidents occur is a critical but underexplored challenge. This paper addresses this gap using connected vehicle telemetry data from Greater Sydney, Australia, to detect and forecast near-miss risky driving events at the Local Government Area (LGA) level. Risky driving is quantified through g-force thresholds (hard braking >0.6g, harsh cornering >0.47g, harsh acceleration >0.5g), and spatio-temporal heatmaps are constructed to identify high-risk zones. Eight predictive models are benchmarked across three families: ensemble learning (Random Forests, XGBoost, LightGBM), deep learning (LSTM, N-BEATS), and classical time-series methods (ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Prophet). ARIMA achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE: 162.21), performing comparably to LSTM (MAE: 163.92) and outperforming all ensemble methods, with N-BEATS reaching an MAE of 180.75. These results demonstrate that parsimonious time-series models are competitive with deep learning approaches when training data volume is limited. The study highlights the potential of IoT-based connected vehicle data to support proactive road safety interventions, with Sydney's inner and western LGAs (CBD, Parramatta, Bankstown) identified as persistent high-risk zones warranting targeted policy action.