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arXiv · 2608.16922

Towards welfare-oriented recommendations in activity-travel behavior

Ekin Ugurel·Takahiro Yabe
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Abstract

While mainstream recommender systems (RS) rely on diverse heuristics to rank alternatives, they generally lack a principled account of user welfare (i.e., whether accepting the recommendation will leave the user better off than other alternatives). The problem is particularly acute in activity-based travel behavior, where users incur costs they cannot recoup (i.e., energy, time) regardless of eventual satisfaction. As a result, existing systems may recommend options based on popularity or collaborative filtering, but may still leave users worse off than nearby or self-selected alternatives. We address this gap by introducing a welfare-oriented framework for activity recommendation that evaluates suggestions in terms of net utility, defined as experienced benefit minus travel costs. Specifically, we formalize two operational decision criteria: Positive Utility Probability (PUP) recommends only when the probability of non-negative net utility exceeds a threshold, while Regret Minimization (RM) recommends only when expected regret relative to the user's best organic alternative falls below a tolerance level. To evaluate these criteria, we develop an agent-based simulation in which heterogeneous synthetic travelers interact with multiple RS over time in a spatial environment with realistic travel costs, congestion, and behavioral feedback loops. This framework enables controlled counterfactual evaluations, and offers a practical foundation for designing RS that treat user welfare as a primary objective rather than an incidental byproduct.

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Ekin Ugurel, Takahiro Yabe. 2026-08-03. Towards welfare-oriented recommendations in activity-travel behavior. https://doi.org/10.1145/3773078.3831788

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