Exact Scaling Theory of Social Tipping Phenomena in Finite Populations

Abstract

Granovetter's threshold model provides a classical framework for social mobilization, where collective action spreads through cascades as individuals join once movement size reaches their personal threshold. Here, we characterize social tipping points-the minimum seed required for global mobilization-using the initial fraction of instigators, $ρ_0$, as a control parameter. For a finite population of size $N$ with Beta-distributed thresholds $(α, β)$, we present an exact analytical study of the cascade dynamics. By evaluating the asymptotic active fraction $ρ_\infty$, we map the thermodynamic phase diagram separating partial cascades ($ρ_0 \le ρ_\infty < 1$) from complete mobilization ($ρ_\infty = 1$), revealing continuous and discontinuous transition lines that meet seamlessly at a critical endpoint. For interior-peaked distributions ($α> 1, β> 1$), the regimes are separated by a hybrid phase transition combining a first-order discontinuity with second-order bottleneck singularities. Combining exact finite-$N$ combinatorial formulations with large-deviation theory, we establish how finite-size fluctuations smooth these singularities. For power-law thresholds ($α> 1, β= 1$), the critical scaling window shrinks as $N^{-1/3}$, while the expected inactive fraction vanishes as $N^{-1/3}$ at criticality. For interior-peaked distributions ($β> 1$), the order parameter is bimodally distributed: realizations either achieve full mobilization or stall near a bottleneck $ρ^*$. Excluding fully mobilized trajectories, $ρ^* - \langle ρ_\infty \rangle$ vanishes as $N^{-1/4}$ and the scaling window compresses to $N^{-1/2}$. Together, these results establish an exact finite-size scaling theory for threshold-driven tipping phenomena.