Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2609.01675

Random Forest-Informed Cellular Automaton for Large-Scale Wildfire Spread Modelling

Siyu Chen·Esha Saha·Hao Wang
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Accurate large-scale wildfire spread modelling requires models that capture both the environmental conditions associated with fire occurrence and the local dynamics of fire propagation. We propose a three-stage framework that combines a Random Forest (RF) model with a cellular automaton (CA). First, an RF model trained on the 2021 Canadian fire season estimates daily pixel-level fire-occurrence probabilities. Second, quantile gradient boosting models provide optional spread-rate priors for sensitivity analysis. Third, an RF-informed CA combines the RF probability layer with neighbourhood-driven spread on a 5 km grid. The RF model achieved AUC values of 0.725--0.795 on the 2022--2024 datasets, while the RF-informed CA achieved substantially higher spatial overlap than the evaluated CA-only baselines in the 2023 simulation. A higher-resolution simulation provides an additional qualitative assessment of local spatial errors. These results suggest that combining RF-derived probabilities with local CA spread can improve large-scale wildfire simulations under the tested conditions.

Explore related subjects

stat.APcs.LG

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Siyu Chen, Esha Saha, Hao Wang. 2026-09-01. Random Forest-Informed Cellular Automaton for Large-Scale Wildfire Spread Modelling. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01675

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

Discover connections

cs.LG subjectstat.AP subject

Connections use source metadata and explicit phrase matches, not verified experimental comparisons.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Diffusion Distillation for Efficient Weather Ensembles

Diffusion models generate skillful weather ensembles but require costly iterative sampling. We introduce a supervised energy-distance distillation method that compresses a multi-step diffusion teacher into a single-step student by aligning student forecasts with teacher samples and ground-truth observations. Experiments on global forecasting and typhoon-track prediction show that our student outperforms existing distillation methods and preserves skill for extreme events. It matches or surpasses the teacher across key metrics using only one neural function evaluation per autoregressive step.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Selection-Aware Stress Testing for Interactive Agents

Agent evaluations often use one benchmark to choose a workflow and then search for task types where its advantage weakens, so both conclusions are selected from the same data. We introduce Selection-Aware Semantic Stress Testing (\SASST{}), which learns a task reweighting from pre-execution features on discovery tasks and evaluates the same paired comparison on separate confirmation tasks. The protocol checks support and stability, uses joint bounds for all planned claims, and can return no claim. We prove conditional asymptotic validity under stated cluster assumptions. A forty-cluster audit finds Gaussian undercoverage and conservative Bonferroni $t$ bounds. In one 480-episode $τ$-bench study, a $3.75$ point discovery gain vanished on confirmation. A second-model study likewise confirmed neither a workflow benefit nor a stable stress rule.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Neural operators approximate strongly continuous convex monotone semigroups

We approximate strongly continuous convex monotone semigroups by learning their Chernoff-type one-step operators with neural operators. First, we introduce the general class of so-called Chernoff-neural operators and show in a universal approximation theorem that they can approximate the Chernoff one-step operators arbitrarily well. By using stability estimates between weighted Hölder spaces, the one-step approximation error can be propagated through the iterations which yields universal approximation of the corresponding semigroup. Second, we introduce the more specialized class of envelope-neural operators for envelope semigroups which allows us to derive quantitative approximation rates. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of these neural operators in several numerical examples arising from non-linear partial differential equations, stochastic optimal control and stochastic processes under model uncertainty.

math.NA↗