From Laboratory Aging Studies to Field Predictions: Quantifying Uncertainty in Battery Storage Lifetime Predictions

Abstract

Predicting how long a battery energy storage system will last is critical for warranty design, maintenance planning and investment decisions, yet degradation models are mostly deterministic and rarely validated against real field data. We apply an open-source probabilistic degradation framework, combined with a cell-to-system approximation, to bridge the gap between cell-level laboratory aging models and system-level field predictions for residential battery energy storage systems with quantified uncertainty. The framework predicts cell-level state-of-health to within 0.4 % mean absolute error, roughly half the error of prior models for this dataset. When applied to field operation data, the framework's predictions are consistent with all three available system-level capacity measurements - a benchmark rarely available for open probabilistic degradation models. Cell-level heterogeneity is approximated by two bounding stress scenarios differing only slightly (a 5 % spread in temperature and a 9 % spread in current). The mean degradation trajectories of the two scenarios reach end-of-life 10 months apart, while the full predicted end-of-life range across both scenarios spans approximately three years, about a third of the expected system lifetime. We link this uncertainty to two drivers. One is a systematic mismatch between laboratory test conditions and field-representative operating stress. The other is variability in the training data itself. These insights translate into concrete, resource-efficient recommendations for future aging study design, supporting more confident predictions of battery lifetime under real-world conditions.