Spatiotemporal Analysis for Frequency-Magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes Across Mainland China: Comparing Classical and b-positive b-values Across Tectonic Regimes

Yuxin Zhou; Huai Zhang; S. Mostafa Mousavi

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arXiv · 2609.20239

Spatiotemporal Analysis for Frequency-Magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes Across Mainland China: Comparing Classical and b-positive b-values Across Tectonic Regimes

Yuxin Zhou·Huai Zhang·S. Mostafa Mousavi

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Abstract

The Gutenberg-Richter power-law relationship essentially governs the frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of seismic activity. The b-value, as the slope of this distribution, is widely recognized not only as a quantifier of the relative proportion of small to large events but also as a diagnostic precursor of crustal differential stress and potential big to huge earthquakes. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of b-values across major tectonic regions in mainland China, for instance, the Sichuan-Yunnan, North China, and Northwest regions. Our analysis of over 50 years of seismic records systematically examines b-value variations across major seismogenic zones in mainland China to evaluate their utility as precursors for moderate-to-strong earthquakes. Moreover, our comparison suggests that the b-positive estimator is less affected by changes in detection capability and short-term aftershock incompleteness than the classical b-value estimator in the cases examined. While the Sichuan-Yunnan region displays a complex "mosaic" of high and low b-values reflecting fluid-driven processes and localized locking, the North China Plain and Northwest regions exhibit consistently lower b-values, suggesting high background stress and rigid crustal integrity. We also find that several of the rupture areas of moderate-to-large earthquakes in our catalog coincide with localized low-b patches identified in earlier long-term windows. This study provides a foundation for systematic, prospective evaluation of b-value-based precursor monitoring in mainland China.

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Yuxin Zhou, Huai Zhang, S. Mostafa Mousavi. 2026-07-27. Spatiotemporal Analysis for Frequency-Magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes Across Mainland China: Comparing Classical and b-positive b-values Across Tectonic Regimes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20239

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