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arXiv · 2609.22655

Scoring With the Engine: Retrieval Exposure, Cross-Engine Divergence, and the Limits of Engine-Agnostic GEO Scores

Benjamin Tannenbaum
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Abstract

Recent work asks whether generative-engine visibility can be approximated with deterministic, engine-free page scores. We separate two stages such scores can conflate: exposure to a live engine and citation selection conditional on exposure. In an observational audit of ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google, and Perplexity, 15 fixed commercial prompts produced 589 citation observations on 6 June 2026, corresponding to 528 unique URLs and 356 domains. Same-prompt cross-engine URL overlap was extremely small: mean pairwise Jaccard similarity was 0.0079, the median was zero, and 84.9% of engine pairs shared no cited URL. On the ten prompts observed on all four engines, mean exact-URL Jaccard was 0.0072. A matched-size hypergeometric baseline preserving each prompt's four-engine URL universe and each engine's list length predicts 0.1272, so observed overlap was only 5.7% of that baseline; zero URL overlap occurred in 86.7% of comparisons versus 12.3% expected. Top-five exact-URL overlap was zero in all 60 pairwise comparisons. A single engine captured only 11.4%-42.6% of the four-engine URL union, and 96.4% of observed URLs appeared in only one engine. A separate 5-to-6 June same-engine comparison found 67.0% mean URL-set turnover. These results do not invalidate engine-free page scoring; they identify its estimand. A score computed without a live engine can estimate page quality or query-page fit, while end-to-end visibility additionally depends on engine-specific exposure and selection. We therefore argue for reporting page fit, observed exposure, conditional selection, and final visibility as distinct quantities.

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Benjamin Tannenbaum. 2026-09-19. Scoring With the Engine: Retrieval Exposure, Cross-Engine Divergence, and the Limits of Engine-Agnostic GEO Scores. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22655

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