Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2609.30995

Learning Hierarchical Causal Representations of the Effects of Forcings on Temperature in Climate Models

Shan Zhao·Ilija Trajkovic·Julia Kaltenborn·Yaniv Gurwicz·Peer Nowack·David Rolnick·Julien Boussard
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) emulators provide a fast and cost-effective method to simulate climate change scenarios after being trained on Earth System Models projections. However, the black-box nature of those data-driven approaches limit the usability and trustworthiness of their outputs and in particular their use as causal attribution tools. Here, we develop a hierarchical causal representation learning framework applied to sea surface temperature fields from a state-of-the-art global climate model. As a key advance over previous work, our framework explicitly models both atmospheric dynamical interactions arising from internal climate variability and forced responses due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. When trained on future climate change scenarios, our method accurately predicts the long-term global mean and regional temperature evolution and shows physically realistic responses to perturbations in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations when evaluated on unseen scenarios. Our results underline the potential of causal representation learning frameworks for advancing climate model emulation.

Explore related subjects

cs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Shan Zhao, Ilija Trajkovic, Julia Kaltenborn, Yaniv Gurwicz, Peer Nowack, David Rolnick, Julien Boussard. 2026-09-25. Learning Hierarchical Causal Representations of the Effects of Forcings on Temperature in Climate Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30995

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Efficient Constrained Graph Search for Post-hoc Error Correction in Binary Classifiers

We introduce a model-agnostic framework for constrained post-hoc error correction in binary classifiers. Given a frozen base classifier, the method searches for an interpretable conjunction of feature--threshold rules that corrects residual false-positive or false-negative errors while explicitly constraining newly introduced errors. The approach combines graph-based search over candidate rule paths, depth-dependent dynamic constraints, and a reduced-histogram procedure for efficient threshold evaluation. Unlike retraining or modifying the base classifier, the learned correction path operates on its predictions and can therefore be applied to arbitrary binary classifiers with suitable input features. Experiments on a large binary-classification problem demonstrate that the method can identify compact correction rules efficiently; for example, one configuration removes 90\% of false positives while sacrificing 5\% of true positives.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Stochastic Bilevel Optimization with Heavy-Tailed Noise

This paper considers the smooth bilevel optimization in which the lower-level problem is strongly convex and the upper-level problem is possibly nonconvex. We focus on the stochastic setting where the algorithm can access the unbiased stochastic gradient evaluation with heavy-tailed noise, which is prevalent in many machine learning applications, such as training large language models and reinforcement learning. We propose a nested-loop normalized stochastic bilevel approximation (N$^2$SBA) for finding an $ε$-stationary point with the stochastic first-order oracle (SFO) complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big(κ^{\frac{7p-3}{p-1}} σ^{\frac{p}{p-1}} ε^{-\frac{4 p - 2}{p-1}}\big)$, where $κ$ is the condition number, $p\in(1,2]$ is the order of central moment for the noise, and $σ$ is the noise level. Furthermore, we specialize our idea to solve the nonconvex-strongly-concave minimax optimization problem, achieving an $ε$-stationary point with the SFO complexity of~$\tilde{\mathcal O}\big(κ^{\frac{2p-1}{p-1}} σ^{\frac{p}{p-1}} ε^{-\frac{3p-2}{p-1}}\big)$. All the above upper bounds match the best-known results under the special case of the bounded variance setting, i.e., $p=2$. We also conduct the numerical experiments to show the empirical superiority of the proposed methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

FLAME: Flow Enhanced Legendre Memory Models for General Time Series Forecasting

In this work, we introduce FLAME, a family of extremely lightweight and capable Time Series Foundation Models, which support versatile forecasting tasks via generative probabilistic modeling, while ensuring both efficiency and robustness. FLAME utilizes the Legendre Memory for strong generalization capabilities. By adapting variants of Legendre Memory, i.e., translated Legendre (LegT) and scaled Legendre (LegS), in the Encoding and Decoding phases, FLAME can effectively capture the inherent inductive bias within data and make efficient long-range inferences. To enhance the accuracy of probabilistic forecasting while remaining efficient, FLAME adopts a normalizing-flow-based forecasting head, which can model complex distributions over the forecasting horizon in a generative manner. Comprehensive experiments on three well-recognized benchmarks, including TSFM-Bench, ProbTS, and TFB, demonstrate that FLAME is a strong out-of-the-box tool for decision intelligence.

cs.LG↗