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arXiv · 2609.31259

Sensitivity-driven Personalization of a Glucoregulatory Model for Digital Twin Therapeutics in Type 1 Diabetes

Clara Escorihuela-Altaba·Vihangkumar V. Naik·Eleonora Manzoni·Jose Garcia-Tirado
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Abstract

Digital twins are increasingly used in diabetes research, but reproducing individual glucose dynamics requires accurate identification of glucoregulatory model parameters. Traditional sensitivity analysis can identify influential parameters, yet a ranking based on limited conditions may miss parameters that matter during specific disturbances or for particular individuals. We therefore examine both the magnitude and timing of parameter influence across dynamic input-output conditions and assess whether a common ranking holds across participants. We analyze the Hovorka glucoregulatory model using data from 192 participants receiving automated insulin delivery therapy in the Type 1 Diabetes and Exercise Initiative dataset. We extend Sobol sensitivity analysis to time series and rank parameter influence under four conditions: full-day profiles, isolated meal disturbances, insulin bolus injections, and postprandial responses. We combine the condition-specific results into a global ranking and use it to select parameters for participant-specific identification. Compared with population parameters, identification restricted to the sensitivity-derived subset reduces the root mean square error of 60-minute glucose predictions by 60%, to approximately 31 mg/dL. These findings suggest that a global ranking can capture parameter influence across individuals and dynamic conditions. By narrowing the parameters requiring identification, this approach reduces computational cost and could accelerate the development of personalized diabetes digital twins.

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Clara Escorihuela-Altaba, Vihangkumar V. Naik, Eleonora Manzoni, Jose Garcia-Tirado. 2026-09-25. Sensitivity-driven Personalization of a Glucoregulatory Model for Digital Twin Therapeutics in Type 1 Diabetes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31259

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