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arXiv · 2609.33664

Who Blocks Whom? Probabilistic Pass-Blocking Assignments for Evaluating Blockers and Pass Rushers in American Football

Abhijit Brahme·Ishan Mehta·Gregory J. Matthews·Alexander Franks
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Abstract

Historically, statistical analysis of offensive lineman has been hindered by the lack of easily measurable quantities. More recently, with the introduction of player tracking data new methodological advances are now possible. Using high-dimensional spatio-temporal data, we adapt the defensive-matchup hidden Markov model of \cite{franks2015characterizing} from basketball to football pass protection, producing frame-by-frame probabilistic assignments of each pass blocker to the rushers. We show how this probabilistic assignment is a usable modeling artifact that augments existing player-evaluation frameworks. We directly quantify the attention a rusher commands, upgrade adjusted plus-minus \citep{Macdonald+2012} from all-or-nothing stints to partial, continuous blocking credit in continuous time, yield block-shedding survival metrics, and measure the space a rusher generates for his teammates. Fit to the first eight weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the resulting metrics recover widely-recognized elite rushers and pass protectors and align with independent charting.

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Abhijit Brahme, Ishan Mehta, Gregory J. Matthews, Alexander Franks. 2026-09-29. Who Blocks Whom? Probabilistic Pass-Blocking Assignments for Evaluating Blockers and Pass Rushers in American Football. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33664

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