Migration Genealogies in Multiregional Stable Populations: First-Return Decompositions, Recurrence, and Sensitivity

Ryo Oizumi; Kensaku Kinjo; Yuki Chino

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arXiv · 2609.34100

Migration Genealogies in Multiregional Stable Populations: First-Return Decompositions, Recurrence, and Sensitivity

Ryo Oizumi·Kensaku Kinjo·Yuki Chino

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Abstract

When people of reproductive age move between regions, replacement-level fertility need not produce spatially balanced population replacement. Migration genealogies connect a woman's birth region, through survival and movement, to her daughters' birth regions across generations. We decompose existing genealogical series for stable births and reproductive value into first-return paths, on which a lineage again produces a descendant in its reference region without intermediate births there. Discounting at the intrinsic growth rate yields a first-return distribution with an Euler--Lotka-type normalization. Its mean recurrence generation, the expected generations until first return, equals the normalized product of stable births and reproductive value and, at replacement, reciprocal net reproduction sensitivity to within-region reproduction. Using Japan's 2010, 2015, and 2020 censuses, vital statistics, and life tables, we compare 47 prefectures under national replacement. Based on 2020 rates, mean recurrence is approximately 10 generations for Tokyo and 500 for Akita; Fukushima varies across observation years. Similar one-generation birth contributions conceal different descendant destinations and subsequent return pathways. These period-based results reveal how reproductive pathways generate regional differences in stationary populations. Population replacement must therefore be analyzed jointly through fertility, migration, and regional conditions, with mean recurrence identifying the strength of closed reproductive pathways.

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Ryo Oizumi, Kensaku Kinjo, Yuki Chino. 2026-09-28. Migration Genealogies in Multiregional Stable Populations: First-Return Decompositions, Recurrence, and Sensitivity. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34100

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