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arXiv · 2609.35309

Structure of Exposure Modeling of Systems to Climate Change Related Hazards

Matthieu Dutel·Adam Abdin·Didier Soto·Anne Barros
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Abstract

Physical infrastructures designed for stable climate conditions support a significant portion of daily human life activities. However, climate change reshapes the distributions of extreme climate intensities. As a result, physical infrastructures that may face extreme events exceeding their design thresholds risk damage and require adaptation. A preliminary step to adaptation is to identify exposed infrastructures to climate hazards. This paper aims to structure the exposure modeling to climate change hazards by providing an overall methodology. This paper instantiates a framework using the Boolean Exposure Model to assess how physical systems may be exposed to climate hazards. The framework combines a Boolean System Model for infrastructures and a Boolean Hazard Model informed by extreme value statistics. An illustrative case study quantifies the exposure of road bridges in French administrative units to extreme temperatures. Results indicate increasing exposure across future climate scenarios and time periods, with spatial non-uniformity. This framework supports multi-level analysis and integrates non-stationary climate extremes, providing a structured exposure model to facilitate the adaptation of physical systems to climate change.

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Matthieu Dutel, Adam Abdin, Didier Soto, Anne Barros. 2026-09-28. Structure of Exposure Modeling of Systems to Climate Change Related Hazards. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35309

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