Population search for dark matter spikes in megamaser rotation curves

Abstract

A black hole growing adiabatically inside a dark matter halo is expected to develop a dense spike, with a power-law slope between 1.5 and 2.5, depending on redshift and baryonic activity. Direct dynamical tests of this prediction are almost non-existent. Here we show that water megamaser disks offer one; their masers orbit within a parsec of the black hole and are mapped individually with very long baseline interferometry, so the enclosed mass at each radius can be read off the rotation curve. We develop a search method and apply it to eleven megamaser disks with public kinematics. Compared with a black hole alone, a spike is preferred in NGC 1194 and NGC 4258 and moderately improves the fit in several others. Allowing the disks to warp removes this preference in all but NGC 4258 and NGC 6264. No combination of disks, warped or not, allows a spike heavier than about ten per cent of the black hole mass, a sensitivity validated with mock injection tests. Mapping the warps with maser accelerations and detecting fainter inner masers, where a spike and a tilt differ most, can break the remaining degeneracy. Megamaser disks open a window onto dark matter around supermassive black holes, and, importantly, one that enables population statistics.