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arXiv · 2609.38112

ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control

Bruno Marcondes e Resende·Helton Graziadei·Thiago Rodrigo Ramos·Rafael Izbicki
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Abstract

Many applications of black-box predictive models require controlling task-relevant error rates, such as missed lesion pixels in segmentation or missed labels in multilabel classification. Conformal risk control (CRC; Angelopoulos et al., arXiv:2208.02814) gives distribution-free guarantees for such losses, but it calibrates a single threshold shared by all inputs. Because conditional risk varies with the input, this marginal guarantee often overprotects easy cases and underprotects hard ones. We propose ReCIRC (Rectified Conformal Risk Control), which inverts each input's estimated local risk curve to reparameterize the calibrated threshold as a risk budget $a$ representing a common target conditional risk, and then applies CRC unchanged to the resulting family. ReCIRC retains CRC's finite-sample marginal guarantee regardless of the accuracy of the estimated curves, while accurate curves yield approximate conditional risk control and, under additional conditions, asymptotically exact conditional risk control; they also support a risk-calibration diagnostic. Across three synthetic and five real-data settings spanning segmentation, multilabel and multiclass classification, and regression, ReCIRC attained the lowest average worst-group risk and mean positive group excess in every setting, while maintaining marginal risk close to the target, whereas changes in prediction size were application-dependent.

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Bruno Marcondes e Resende, Helton Graziadei, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos, Rafael Izbicki. 2026-09-29. ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38112

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