Nearby Supernova Science in the Era of High Cadence, Deep Time Domain Surveys

Abstract

We discuss science opportunities for nearby supernovae (SNe) in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), emphasizing the youngest phases of SN evolution and the value of contemporaneous high-cadence shadowing surveys. LSST's Wide Fast Deep survey will discover enormous numbers of SNe, but its $\sim 3$ day cadence will miss signatures that evolve on timescales of hours to days, requiring cadence augmentation by other programs. We present simple depth and cadence metrics for early SN signatures and use empirical nearby SN discovery rates to estimate the resulting science opportunities. LSST will detect or set limits on precursor emission from hundreds of core-collapse SNe, including $\gtrsim 50$-100 Type IIn and normal Type II SNe annually, as well as $\gtrsim$5 Type Ibn. Within $\sim 200$ Mpc, roughly 250 Type Ia SNe are classified annually, providing the potential to identify hundreds of early light-curve excesses, and a robust measurement of the incidence of extreme high-velocity features ($>$25,000 km s$^{-1}$). A shadowing survey with a depth of $\sim 22.5$ mag could search for early light-curve features, akin to the light-curve excess seen in SN2023ixf, across dozens of nearby core-collapse SNe every year. Rapid spectroscopy of $\gtrsim$150 Type II SNe per year within $\sim$160 Mpc could constrain the incidence of short-lived flash features to $\lesssim$10% within a few years, while also tying this to the rate of precursor emission in normal Type II SNe. We also discuss the challenges posed by early classification ambiguity and faint nonterminal transients, and we request that the 80 hour embargo on LSST images be waived for nearby galaxy fields. Finally, we advocate for a Nearby Galaxy Transient Broker that integrates transient streams, archival data, forced photometry, and follow-up triggering in a single platform.