Disentangling epidemics and percolation

Takayuki Hiraoka; Jari Saramäki

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arXiv · 2610.03573

Disentangling epidemics and percolation

Takayuki Hiraoka·Jari Saramäki

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Abstract

Non-recurrent epidemics on complex networks, such as the paradigmatic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, are often studied by mapping the model to bond percolation. However, the conditions under which this identification is justified have not been fully understood, except in specific cases. Here, we systematically determine when this mapping can be applied, starting from minimal assumptions on the epidemic model and the underlying network. Specifically, we discuss the conditions for three different forms of equivalence between a general non-recurrent epidemic model and Bernoulli bond percolation: isomorphism, equality of marginal infection probabilities, and equality of expected epidemic size. We numerically demonstrate the validity of our findings and examine how epidemiological outcomes are affected when these equivalences are not upheld. Our results establish the methodological basis and limitations of a common tool for analyzing epidemic processes on networks.

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Takayuki Hiraoka, Jari Saramäki. 2026-10-02. Disentangling epidemics and percolation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03573

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