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arXiv · 2610.03727

On the Tightness and Computational Tractability of Higher-Dimensional Confidence Sequences

Fabian Denoodt·Sibylle Hess·Joaquin Vanschoren·Christian A. Naesseth
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Abstract

Modern sequential monitoring problems often involve multiple metrics, where we monitor several data streams simultaneously and may act once the evidence is strong enough. Confidence sequences (CSs) are a natural tool for such continuous monitoring. However, for bounded vector means, existing multivariate CSs are either tight but computationally intractable, or fast to compute but conservative. To address this, we study three lifts of one-dimensional betting-based CSs to higher dimensions: a weighted Bonferroni region, an equivalent max-wealth form, and a portfolio region. The portfolio is typically much tighter, especially in higher dimensions, but its boundary and properties such as volume are not available in closed form. To make this tighter construction usable, we propose tractable outer approximations of the portfolio region that preserve statistical validity: a bounding box, an $\ell_p$-ellipsoid, and their intersection. We prove set relations among all constructions and show empirically that these approximations (i) achieve regions close to the intractable portfolio, (ii) substantially outperform existing tractable multivariate CSs, and (iii) enable practical use cases such as multi-metric A/B testing and model comparison.

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Fabian Denoodt, Sibylle Hess, Joaquin Vanschoren, Christian A. Naesseth. 2026-10-08. On the Tightness and Computational Tractability of Higher-Dimensional Confidence Sequences. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03727

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