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arXiv · 2610.05632

Delay-coordinate reconstruction and conditional-moment causal diagnostics in stochastic systems

Jun Ohkubo
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Abstract

Partial observation and delay-coordinate reconstruction are rooted in deterministic dynamical-systems theory, whereas there are many systems with intrinsic stochasticity. We propose a conditional-moment interpretation of delay-coordinate reconstruction for stochastic systems, in which a delay vector is used to reconstruct conditional moments of a future distribution rather than a unique future sample path. Two complementary arguments motivate this viewpoint. First, the probability density of a stochastic differential equation obeys a deterministic Fokker-Planck equation and, under certain assumptions, is represented by an infinite deterministic hierarchy of moments. Hence, a finite-moment closure suggests a Takens-like finite-dimensional approximation. Second, a discussion based on the Koopman operator theory clarifies that the time evolution of an observable in the Mori-Zwanzig formalism yields a conditional expectation in stochastic systems. Then, the orthogonal "noise" term in the coefficient-space Mori-Zwanzig equation vanishes in the stochastic cases; this result is consistent with the moment-based argument. As an application of this stochastic delay-reconstruction viewpoint, we revisit convergent cross mapping (CCM) for diagnosing certain causal relationships. Although CCM based on the embedding theorem cannot generally be applied to stochastic systems, it is possible to examine certain types of causal relationships by using conditional moments. Using coupled logistic systems with additive and multiplicative coupling mechanisms, we discuss how causal relationships are embedded in stochastic systems.

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Jun Ohkubo. 2026-10-04. Delay-coordinate reconstruction and conditional-moment causal diagnostics in stochastic systems. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.05632

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