Changing Geographies of Violence in North and West Africa

Steven M. Radil; Olivier J. Walther; Mohammed Sanda

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arXiv · 2610.14206

Changing Geographies of Violence in North and West Africa

Steven M. Radil·Olivier J. Walther·Mohammed Sanda

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Abstract

This paper analyses spatial trends in armed conflicts in North and West Africa. It shows that all types of violence saw a significant increase in 2025. However, these violent incidents are distributed very unevenly across the region: while conflict is at its lowest in North Africa, the vast majority of violent incidents and victims are concentrated in five West African countries: Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Coastal countries are experiencing a very mixed picture: jihadism is not advancing as a front, from the Sahel toward the Gulf of Guinea, and most of the violence stems from local disputes, ethnic conflicts, and banditry. Second, the spatial indicator developed by the OECD/SWAC to track the evolution of this violence confirms that the conflict landscape is expanding at its margins and intensifying at its center. Even more concerning is that peripheral areas are increasingly being drawn directly into well-established conflict zones, rather than going through a gradual, low-intensity transition phase. The geography of expansion is shifting from a diffuse, low-intensity spread toward peripheral areas to a rapid outward expansion from dense, well-established conflict hotspots. The local indicator used in the report suggests that violence continues to spread to new locations at the margins of established conflict zones. At the heart of these zones, tensions are intensifying relative to their historical baseline levels, and a growing number of regions have experienced clashes for a decade or more. Projections indicate that the intensity of violence is expected to increase in 2026, reaching more than 15,000 incidents and more than 32,500 deaths. Much of the increase is explained by the growing number of conflicts in Nigeria. In the Sahel, fatalities should increase in Mali and decrease in Burkina Faso.

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Steven M. Radil, Olivier J. Walther, Mohammed Sanda. 2026-10-09. Changing Geographies of Violence in North and West Africa. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14206

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